As I briefly mentioned in my post Ukraine – Something Wicked This Way Comes… Russians, historically, are quite adept and willing to engage in winter operations. Defensively and offensively it has served them well in the past. Joe Dolio over at Tactical Wisdom shared a rather depressing bit of history extending on that thought they also like to leverage holidays and international events to slow and confuse western response to these operations.
For example, the Russians rolled into Afghanistan on Christmas Eve in 1979 because they knew Western operations centers would be lightly staffed for the holiday. National and military leadership would also be out of pocket for the same reason. Moreover they have used international events such as the Olympics (starting soon) to help take advantage of the distractions they provide:
Russia took advantage of the Olympic Opening Ceremony to strike Georgia in 2008 and the Olympic Closing Ceremony in 2014 to take the Crimea.
He has some even more chilling concerns in this post (Learning from Mongol Moon) related to China. I encourage everyone to check it out and prepare as you see fit based on the scenario outlined.
Most assume a Russian offensive would begin with or include a cyberattack on the US and Western powers. So, is the discover of and widespread use of the Log4j vulnerability a coincidence?
I don’t have enough information to say one way or the other but…
Take all information like this with a grain of salt. Then take a look at your preparedness/readiness level and take whatever measures you feel are appropriate.
Be alert, get prepared, fight the good fight!
God bless and God save the Republic.