For the physical war in Ukraine we can look at casualty estimates, losses of material and lines on a map to help determine who is winning (though that’s pretty cloudy as well). But how can we tell who is winning the economic war?
That’s an honest question and I don’t know the answer to it.
It is one even the armchair pundits from corporate media are avoiding as well. If they didn’t I am sure they would just be rebroadcasting whatever propaganda the current occupiers of the White House and the Ukrainian government in Ukraine were spewing forth. Many on social media are weighing in on the costs and the risks of the war but again, no one is talking about who is winning.
Out of curiosity, I decided to look at a couple of indicators that might help us understand who is winning; the value of the Russian Ruble versus the American Dollar and the value gold versus each.
US Dollar vs. Russian Ruble
On the day of the invasion the US Dollar was worth 84.05 Russian Rubles. As of today (3/28/22) the Dollar is worth 87.56 Rubles. From that indicator it would seem the US is coming out ahead. Keep in mind that the Ruble was down far more than that but countermoves by Russia in this economic war has closed the gap…by a lot. Nevertheless, the Russian Ruble is down 4.18% versus the US Dollar.
Gold vs. US Dollar and Russian Ruble
Gold prices have fluctuated quite a bit since the invasion but on the day of the invasion it was $1,906.40 per ounce while as of today it is 1934.01 per ounce. If I can do simple math that means the dollar has lost about 1.45% since the start of hostilities.
On the Russian side the price per ounce was 163,071 per ounce at the start and as of today it is 198,011. Again with caveats of my math skills, looks like a loss of 21.43% since the invasion.
From these simplistic measures it appears Russia is losing the economic war but it is not an overwhelming defeat at this point.
The true cost of the economic war against Russia will play out over months, quarters and even years and there will be other scorecards developed and shared by the ultimate winner.
However…
As with the physical war in Ukraine, the real losers are the common, everyday citizens of the countries involved. The fat cats of the Western military-industrial complex and the oligarchs of Russia and Ukraine will barely feel the impacts at all or, more likely, will make a killing…from the killing.
Take care and may God bless and keep you.