Category: Random Thoughts

Intel Brief 05/23/2022

Food:

*UN Report – Shows the world has approximately 10 weeks wheat remaining in reserves. Due to increased cost and decreased availability countries around the world are depleting their reserves.

(Steps to) War:

*China – Just before Biden’s arrival in S. Korea, 2 Chinese heavy bombers circled Okinawa where significant portions of the US military presence in the far east are stationed. A large fleet exercise was also initiated in the waters between Japan and Taiwan.

*China – China sent 2 heavy bombers and 16 fighters into the Taiwanese air defense zone on Friday as Biden landed in S. Korea. The aircraft crossed the midline of the Taiwanese straits. This about the first time they have ventured that far into the ADZ.

*China – US announced deepening trade relations with Taiwan. In a press conference Joe Biden announced that the US would go to war with China if they moved on Taiwan. The White House later backtracked that statement but China responded with a strong statement warning the US to stay out of it.

Russia – Electrical service and gas has been shut off for several more Western countries.

Civil Unrest/Violence:

*Roe v. Wade Decision – The ruling overturning Roe v. Wade could be released as early as Today (5/23). Violent protests are expected to follow.

Economy:

*Turkey – Government reports show the inflation rate is up again and is now 70%

*US – Inflation and a falling stock market has cost Americans $22 trillion. Minimum estimates are that it will cost us at least another $1.9 trillion this year.

Other:

*Monkey Pox – Belgium has instituted a mandatory quarantine for anyone who may have been exposed. NOTE: There are tons of unconfirmed reports about the origin and nature of this strain of the disease; lab created strain, links to Wuhan labs, etc. NONE of this has been confirmed at this point.

Dates To Watch:

*May 20-24 – Biden travelling to Japan and S. Korea (N. Korea possibly planning a nuclear weapon test to coincide).

*May 25 – Exemption allowing Russia to access US Dollars to pay international debts expires (unless extended by the Biden administration). American investors will lose hundreds of millions of dollars if this happens.

*May 29 – Presidential elections in Colombia.  Russian backed Venezuelan dictator Chavez has stated that if the candidate he favors loses he will invade. Columbia is the last remaining US ally in South America.

Intel Brief 05/21/2022

Food:

*Iran – Food riots continue with the death toll near ten

(Steps to) War:

*Russia – US revealed that a record number of US troops have been deployed to Poland. Over 12,000 troops are currently deployed there. Poland announced they are building permanent bases for NATO and US troops.

Russia – (positive) Top US and Russian military leaders held a series of calls. First since the Russian invasion.

*China – The Chinese Communist Party has directed all leaders to divest foreign assets and accounts as quickly as possible to avoid the types of sanctions that have been applied to Russia.

*China/India – Both nations have sent between 30 and 50 THOUSAND additional troops to their shared border. China is building a heavy bridge (to support tanks and armored vehicles) across a lake separating Chinese bases from the Indian border.

*Russia/Finland – Russia cut electricity to Finland immediately after the country applied for NATO membership. They have announced they will cut off gas on 5/21/22.

*Russia – Ukrainian defense officials announced the US is working with them to destroy the Russian Baltic fleet. The US denies this but also announced we are sending advanced anti-ship missiles to Ukraine.

Civil Unrest/Violence:

*Atlanta/Antifa – Antifa members from across the country have converged in southern Atlanta and created an autonomous zone in a wooded area where a first responder training center is being built. Around a dozen have been arrested so far after attacking police and construction crews with stones and firebombs. An explosive device was also found that did not detonate.

*Chicago – 10 shot and 2 killed at a McDonalds a few blocks from the upscale Miracle Mile section of town. Reports indicate that there was a fight outside the restaurant that escalated to gunfire.

*Dallas/FW – A black man targeted a Korean hair salon shooting the workers. Race is considered the primary motive.

Economy:

*Russia – Despite massive economic sanctions, the Russian Ruble is stronger since any time in the last 7 years.
*Russia – Two loan payments were made early, ahead of the 5/25 expiration of exemptions allowing access to frozen assets to pay investors

*US – The stock market recorded its 8th consecutive down week. This has not happened in over 90 years.

*Europe – 1/3 of all EU countries are seeing double digit inflation

*Argentina – Inflation has reached 70-80%

Other:

*US to blame – Senior Russian officials are blaming the US for the world’s rising food prices; sanctions and poor monetary policy (printing money) are to blame.

*Monkey Pox – World Health Organization called a special session to discuss the outbreak (rare outside of Africa). The US has purchased several million doses of the vaccine from a European pharma company.

*Title 42 – A Federal judge extended the restraining order keeping Biden from dumping the Title 42 restrictions that help reduce illegal immigration.

*Israel – defense forces are preparing for more and increased violence as the Palestinian government continues to push for terrorist acts and riots.

Dates To Watch:

*May 20-24 – Biden travelling to Japan and S. Korea (N. Korea possibly planning a nuclear weapon test to coincide).

*May 25 – Exemption allowing Russia to access US Dollars to pay international debts expires (unless extended by the Biden administration). American investors will lose hundreds of millions of dollars if this happens.

*May 29 – Presidential elections in Colombia.  Russian backed Venezuelan dictator Maduro has stated that if the candidate he favors loses he will invade. Columbia is the last remaining US ally in South America.

Pray up, Stock up, Train up, Team up…dark times are coming.

God bless

 

Happy Mother’s Day

Today we honor mothers. They carried and helped us grow within the safety of their own bodies for months. Then they spent years continuing to nurture and protect us. Teaching us what we would need to know to eventually leave them. No job on the planet is as tough and demanding as being a mom. No job on the planet is as important as being a mom.

Thank you and may God bless and keep each of you in His embrace.

Pray up, Stock up, Train up, Team up.

Rejoice!

Today is the celebration of the most joyous event In history. The day Jesus was rose from the grave; defeating death and sin for all who repent and accept Him and His gift of Grace. Regardless of what is happening in the world this is the truth that can give us joy an hope. Rejoice in that always but especially today!

May God bless and keep you.

Struggle Versus Ease…

In our abundance and ease we struggle to find joy, yet they [the apostles] found it in their poverty and affliction.

-Exalting Jesus in John

If our eyes are fixed on Him, our goals are His and we have a relationship with Him then we can’t help but find joy regardless of our circumstances. No matter how scary or difficult our lives become we need to keep focused on what truly matters.

Dear Lord, if it is your will take this cup from us. If not, then give us strength to stand for what is right and just, to stand in Your Holy light and against the darkness.

Amen…

 

 

Who Is Winning The Economic War With Russia?

For the physical war in Ukraine we can look at casualty estimates, losses of material and lines on a map to help determine who is winning (though that’s pretty cloudy as well). But how can we tell who is winning the economic war?

That’s an honest question and I don’t know the answer to it.

It is one even the armchair pundits from corporate media are avoiding as well. If they didn’t I am sure they would just be rebroadcasting whatever propaganda the current occupiers of the White House and the Ukrainian government in Ukraine were spewing forth. Many on social media are weighing in on the costs and the risks of the war but again, no one is talking about who is winning.

Out of curiosity, I decided to look at a couple of indicators that might help us understand who is winning; the value of the Russian Ruble versus the American Dollar and the value gold versus each.

US Dollar vs. Russian Ruble

On the day of the invasion the US Dollar was worth 84.05 Russian Rubles. As of today (3/28/22) the Dollar is worth 87.56 Rubles. From that indicator it would seem the US is coming out ahead. Keep in mind that the Ruble was down far more than that but countermoves by Russia in this economic war has closed the gap…by a lot. Nevertheless, the Russian Ruble is down 4.18% versus the US Dollar.

Gold vs. US Dollar and Russian Ruble

Gold prices have fluctuated quite a bit since the invasion but on the day of the invasion it was $1,906.40 per ounce while as of today it is 1934.01 per ounce. If I can do simple math that means the dollar has lost about 1.45% since the start of hostilities.

On the Russian side the price per ounce was 163,071 per ounce at the start and as of today it is 198,011. Again with caveats of my math skills, looks like a loss of 21.43% since the invasion.

From these simplistic measures it appears Russia is losing the economic war but it is not an overwhelming defeat at this point.

The true cost of the economic war against Russia will play out over months, quarters and even years and there will be other scorecards developed and shared by the ultimate winner.

However…

As with the physical war in Ukraine, the real losers are the common, everyday citizens of the countries involved. The fat cats of the Western military-industrial complex and the oligarchs of Russia and Ukraine will barely feel the impacts at all or, more likely, will make a killing…from the killing.

Take care and may God bless and keep you.

My Apologies…

I’m sorry, I know my posting has been less than stellar of the last month or so; not much material, incomplete posts going live, etc.

I have been on the road for work most of the last month or so and it leaves little time for the blog.

Hopefully, this will be my last week on the road for a bit and I’ll be able to do a little better job.

Take care and God bless.