Intel Brief 06/06/2022

(Steps to) War:

*Turkey – the president of Turkey has vowed to wipe out all Kurdish forces in Syria including those with US backing and US military forces embedded with them.

*North Korea – Launched 8 ballistic missiles in violation of UN sanctions. The US and S. Korea launched 8 in response.

*Russia – commenting on the scope of the military actions in Ukraine, Russian officials stated that the introduction of long range missiles from the US and UK will extend the operational goals of the mission to protect Russia from missile strikes.

*Russia – a plane carrying the Russian Foreign Minister was blocked from passing through NATO controlled airspace, preventing the meeting between Russian and Serbian officials.

Civil Unrest/Violence:

*Racine, WI – several people were injured in a shooting at the funeral of a man killed in in a shoot out with police.

*IA – Two women were shot in a church

*WI – A former judge was murdered. When police responded the shooter killed himself. The shooter had a list of other political/judicial figures in his possession at the time and it appears to have been a “hit list.”

*FL – A man was arrested to making repeated threats to kill Congresswoman Lauren Boebert.

*PA – 3 dead and 11 wounded in late night rioting and shootout.

*TN – 3 dead and 17 wounded at a nightclub shooting

*TX – Pro-abortion protested stripped down to their underwear and interrupted services at a megachurch in Houston

*NYC – man sleeping on the subway had his face slashed with a razor near times square,

Economy:

*Turkey – the inflation rate continues to rise and is at 73.5%

*Pakistan – Thousands of factories may shut down due to fuel shortages and high prices

*US – Based on the latest report from trustees, the Social Security system will be bankrupt by 2035. Medicare will be broke much sooner than that 2028.

*US – John Deere moving some production to Mexico.
*Poland – Due to rising fuel costs, the government has given permission for Poles to scavenge wood from forests to help heat their homes.

Other:

*Iran – Several high ranking officials suffered “suspicious accidents” over the last week as the government attempts to root out foreign spies.

*Armenia – Dozens injured in violent protests against the sitting government

Intel Brief 06/02/2022

Food:

*Iran – Protests continued and several protesters were killed when security forces opened fire on crowds.

(Steps to) War:

*Russia – the US is providing HIMARS missile systems to Ukraine. Russia has warned against doing so several times. Senior Kremlin officials have warned that this could result in escalation to direct war with the US. A Russian parliament member called for destroying cities along both coasts of the US if these systems are used to target Russian cities. The UK has offered to provide even longer range missiles that are compatible with the launchers we provided. This is probably a way for the US and UK to “spread the blame” when /if these weapons are used against Russian cities.

*Russia – Possibly in response to the US transfer of HIMARS missile systems Russia began nuclear drills. Moving nuclear capable missiles capable of reaching the US out of storage facilities and into the field, testing and performing pre-launch activities. No word on if test launches are planned.

*Russia – The US is now trying to provide Gray Eagle drones to Ukraine. These drones can remain airborne for over 40 hours and carry 8 hellfire missiles. This is also likely to escalate tensions and force a Russian response.

*Russia – US Cyber warfare commander freely admitted that US cyber forces have been used to spy on and target Russian forces, disrupt communications and spread disinformation (lies) about troop deployments and activities.

*China – US and Taiwan have announced closer cooperation and ties between the island’s military and the US “National Guard.”

*Korea – Newly elected president of South Korea referred to N/ Korea as “the enemy.” This is the strongest language used between the nations in decades.

Civil Unrest/Violence:

*Chicago – 10 people were killed and 52 wounded in shootings over Memorial Day weekend

*Tulsa – Four people plus the shooter were killed in a medical center. The shooter was a black male and there are reports the shooting was racially motivated so it won’t be seen on national news.

Economy:

*Europe – Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are reporting official inflation rates of between 16.4% and 20.1%. The highest in Europe.

*Russia – creditors have begun the process of declaring Russia in default due to a claimed $1.9 million in accrued interest not being paid.

Intel Brief 05/31/2022

Food:

*US – egg production has been dramatically decreased due to avian flu, inflation and supply chain issues. As of Sunday one of the largest egg producers in the US was hit with a fire that destroyed the facility and tens of thousands or chickens. This is the latest in a string of fires at food production and distribution centers in the US.

*Sugar – Kazakhstan and Pakistan have limited sugar exports. India is expected to follow suit. Brazil, the world’s largest sugar exporter is also expected to limit exports as they convert more sugar to ethanol to combat increased fuel costs.

(Steps to) War:

*Russia – Conducted a hypersonic missile test near the border with Finland.

*Iran – A Revolutionary Guard leader was assassinated outside his home. US sources leaked that Israel was behind the assassination.

*Iran – A drone attack was carried out on an Iranian weapons development facility.

*Iran/Israel – After an attack on Iranian weapons complex suspected to be carried our by Israel and the assassination of a senior military leader conducted by Israel. Israel announced that they would respond against Iran for any attacks on Israel or Israelis by Iranian proxies.

*Colombia – no candidate achieved a majority in the presidential election. A runoff will be held. Venezuela had threatened an invasion if the communist candidate does not win.

*China – a flight of 22 fighters and 8 support aircraft penetrated Taiwanese airspace around the Pratas Islands. Taiwan scrambled fighters and activated missile defense systems but no shots were fired.

Civil Unrest/Violence:

*Catholic Churches – Two more Catholic churches, one in Brooklyn and one is Katy, were robbed in the last few weeks. Both had tabernacles stolen from the altars and in one a statue of Mary was beheaded.

Economy:

*US – The savings rate is down to 4.4%. The lowest it has been since 2008.

*Germany – The inflation rate is 8.9%, the highest in 60 years

*Pakistan – Due to inflation, supply chain issues and a slow economy Pakistan is requesting a $36 billion bailout to prevent defaulting on existing international loans.

Other:

*Drought – severe drought has affected US agriculture and is forcing water conservation in several Western states. Europe is also facing drought and France is implementing water conservation requirements in many areas as well.

*Russian Default – With US exemptions allowing Russia to make payments on international loans to expire, the Russian government has proposed a scheme to allow it to continue paying international debts. In a dual account system, like the one allowing for gas payments, Russia will pay debts into an account at a non-sanctioned Russian bank in Rubles. These will then be converted to dollars and deposited in a second account for payment of the international debts.

Intel Brief 05/28/2022

Food:

*Malaysia – has banned the export of chicken

*India – Second largest sugar exporter has limited exports to contain costs. India has already limited exports of wheat.

*France – Food vouchers and rationing have been rolled out is several parts of the country

*US – The IMF has called on the US to increase food exports to poor nations. Food prices in the US are already skyrocketing and projections for the next harvest are very poor.

(Steps to) War:

*Turkey – US warned Turkish officials not to put US troops at risk during their military incursion (invasion) of Syria to attack Kurdish “terrorists.” Many US troops are fighting alongside and training the Kurdish groups Turkey is targeting.

Pakistan – Massive protests in and around the capital. Ousted PM is claiming the US is behind regime change.

China – Conducted live fire exercises in the waters around Taiwan

Russia – Foreign Minister tells convention of governors that the West has declared “total war” on

*US/Russia/Iran – The US seized a Russian oil tanker off the coast of Greece that was supposedly carrying Iranian oil in violation of sanctions. The oil is being offloaded to a US flagged tanker and will be shipped to US refineries. In retaliation, Iran has seized two Greek tankers in international waters and sailed them to Iran.

*Unknown – A commercial 777 airliner was forced to take evasive action to avoid an intercontinental ballistic missile launched from a submarine. No notices were posted warning of such a test and no nation admits to having tested the missile.

*Russia – The US allowed the exemption to expire allowing Russia access to their frozen accounts to pay government debts. This will force Russia into default on international loans. Russian pre-paid on two loans before the exemption expired. It is unknown how many US banks and investors will be affected or how much money will be lost if the exemption is not reinstated.

Civil Unrest/Violence:

*Gun Control – In the wake of the Uvalde school shooting there are numerous calls for gun control, responses from citizens and politicians stating that guns will be used if legislation is passed and many gun control advocates are calling for violence against NRA members meeting in Houston.

Economy:

*US – Home foreclosures are surging

*US – The US economy shrank by 1.5% in the first quarters of 2022

Dates To Watch:

*May 29 – Presidential elections in Colombia.  Russian backed Venezuelan dictator Chavez has stated that if the candidate he favors loses he will invade. Columbia is the last remaining US ally in South America.

Intel Brief 05/21/2022

Food:

*Iran – Food riots continue with the death toll near ten

(Steps to) War:

*Russia – US revealed that a record number of US troops have been deployed to Poland. Over 12,000 troops are currently deployed there. Poland announced they are building permanent bases for NATO and US troops.

Russia – (positive) Top US and Russian military leaders held a series of calls. First since the Russian invasion.

*China – The Chinese Communist Party has directed all leaders to divest foreign assets and accounts as quickly as possible to avoid the types of sanctions that have been applied to Russia.

*China/India – Both nations have sent between 30 and 50 THOUSAND additional troops to their shared border. China is building a heavy bridge (to support tanks and armored vehicles) across a lake separating Chinese bases from the Indian border.

*Russia/Finland – Russia cut electricity to Finland immediately after the country applied for NATO membership. They have announced they will cut off gas on 5/21/22.

*Russia – Ukrainian defense officials announced the US is working with them to destroy the Russian Baltic fleet. The US denies this but also announced we are sending advanced anti-ship missiles to Ukraine.

Civil Unrest/Violence:

*Atlanta/Antifa – Antifa members from across the country have converged in southern Atlanta and created an autonomous zone in a wooded area where a first responder training center is being built. Around a dozen have been arrested so far after attacking police and construction crews with stones and firebombs. An explosive device was also found that did not detonate.

*Chicago – 10 shot and 2 killed at a McDonalds a few blocks from the upscale Miracle Mile section of town. Reports indicate that there was a fight outside the restaurant that escalated to gunfire.

*Dallas/FW – A black man targeted a Korean hair salon shooting the workers. Race is considered the primary motive.

Economy:

*Russia – Despite massive economic sanctions, the Russian Ruble is stronger since any time in the last 7 years.
*Russia – Two loan payments were made early, ahead of the 5/25 expiration of exemptions allowing access to frozen assets to pay investors

*US – The stock market recorded its 8th consecutive down week. This has not happened in over 90 years.

*Europe – 1/3 of all EU countries are seeing double digit inflation

*Argentina – Inflation has reached 70-80%

Other:

*US to blame – Senior Russian officials are blaming the US for the world’s rising food prices; sanctions and poor monetary policy (printing money) are to blame.

*Monkey Pox – World Health Organization called a special session to discuss the outbreak (rare outside of Africa). The US has purchased several million doses of the vaccine from a European pharma company.

*Title 42 – A Federal judge extended the restraining order keeping Biden from dumping the Title 42 restrictions that help reduce illegal immigration.

*Israel – defense forces are preparing for more and increased violence as the Palestinian government continues to push for terrorist acts and riots.

Dates To Watch:

*May 20-24 – Biden travelling to Japan and S. Korea (N. Korea possibly planning a nuclear weapon test to coincide).

*May 25 – Exemption allowing Russia to access US Dollars to pay international debts expires (unless extended by the Biden administration). American investors will lose hundreds of millions of dollars if this happens.

*May 29 – Presidential elections in Colombia.  Russian backed Venezuelan dictator Maduro has stated that if the candidate he favors loses he will invade. Columbia is the last remaining US ally in South America.

Pray up, Stock up, Train up, Team up…dark times are coming.

God bless

 

Intel Brief 5/19/22

Food:

*Iran – Protests over increasing prices especially for food spread across several cities. At least four protesters have been killed in the government crackdown. A rationing system for food is being rolled out.

(Steps to) War:

*Russia/Ukraine – More attacks in the separatist (Russian) region of Transnistria. Local authorities are blaming Ukrainian terrorists.

*Russia – Head of Russian security council (civilian head of the military) said the West is engaged in an UNDECLARED WAR with Russia.

*China – US deployed several naval units to the waters near China. Two carrier strike groups, one expeditionary strike group and an amphibious assault ship have entered the waters around Taiwan and Japan.

Civil Unrest/Violence:

*Summer of Rage – Women’s March organizers promised a “Summer of Rage” in response to a leaked draft Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade which would return the authority to regulate abortion to the states.

Economy:

*Inflation – UK reports 25% of people skipping meals because of inflation. Austria reports highest inflation in 40 years.
*Stock market – The market dropped over 1,100 points on Wednesday. The 8th largest drop in US history.

Other:

*Monkeypox – a rare disease rarely seen outside of Africa is spreading in Europe and the first case has been reported in the US. Not linked to the known cases in Europe.

*COVID – US extends Public Health Emergency for COVID until mid-July. North Korea has activated the military to help combat a “COVID” outbreak in the country.

Dates To Watch:

*May 20-24 – Biden travelling to Japan and S. Korea (N. Korea possibly planning a nuclear weapon test to coincide).

*May 23 – Unless extended again by a La. Federal judge, Title 42 will expire resulting in a massive increase in illegal border crossings.

*May 25 – Exemption allowing Russia to access US Dollars to pay international debts expires (unless extended by the Biden administration). American investors will lose hundreds of millions of dollars if this happens.

*May 29 – Presidential elections in Colombia.  Russian backed Venezuelan dictator Chavez has stated that if the candidate he favors loses he will invade. Columbia is the last remaining US ally in South America.

Remember, Pray up, Stock up, Train up and Team up.

God bless

Intel Brief 5/17/22

I am not sure if this would be of value to anyone else but I put together an “Intel Brief” for my family and thought some of you might find it interesting or useful. Let me know if it is an I’ll keel sharing.

Food:

*India – To combat rising food costs, the Indian government announced a partial ban on wheat exports. Only “needy” countries will be able to buy Indian wheat.

*Sri Lanka – Food riots continue to escalate. Current death toll is estimated at over 200

*Iran – Food riots also escalating with Islamist militias being deployed to stop them

(Steps to) War:

*Somalia – US is sending troops back into this country to help fight ISIS-linked insurgents.

*Russia – Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that the West especially the US is waging WAR on Russia. That’s two US congressmen and now the spokesman for the Russian government saying we are at war.

*Russia – thousands of NATO troops began military exercises in Estonia. 30 miles from the Russian border

*Russia/Finland/Sweden – US and other NATO countries promise military assistance to Finland and Sweden should Russian attack before their NATO membership is approved.

*Russia/Ukraine – US is now saying NATO membership for Ukraine could be “fast-tracked” into NATO. As a NATO member the US and other NATO allies would be obligated to send troops to defend the country from Russia.

Civil Unrest/Violence:

*Chicago – 5 people were killed and 30 injured in rioting and gang warfare in Chicago over the weekend. Police were able to respond to only a fraction of the 911 calls on Saturday night due to lack of manpower. All PTO for Chicago PD has been cancelled until further notice.

Economy:

*No significant news today but the global economy continues to falter.

Remember, Pray up, Stock up, Train up and Team up.

God bless

Ukraine – A Depressing Bit Of History (Plus)

As I briefly mentioned in my post Ukraine – Something Wicked This Way Comes… Russians, historically, are quite adept and willing to engage in winter operations. Defensively and offensively it has served them well in the past. Joe Dolio over at Tactical Wisdom shared a rather depressing bit of history extending on that thought they also like to leverage holidays and international events to slow and confuse western response to these operations.

For example, the Russians rolled into Afghanistan on Christmas Eve in 1979 because they knew Western operations centers would be lightly staffed for the holiday. National and military leadership would also be out of pocket for the same reason. Moreover they have used international events such as the Olympics (starting soon) to help take advantage of the distractions they provide:

Russia took advantage of the Olympic Opening Ceremony to strike Georgia in 2008 and the Olympic Closing Ceremony in 2014 to take the Crimea.

He has some even more chilling concerns in this post (Learning from Mongol Moon) related to China. I encourage everyone to check it out and prepare as you see fit based on the scenario outlined.

(Plus)

Most assume a Russian offensive would begin with or include a cyberattack on the US and Western powers. So, is the discover of and widespread use of the Log4j vulnerability a coincidence?

I don’t have enough information to say one way or the other but…

Take all information like this with a grain of salt. Then take a look at your preparedness/readiness level and take whatever measures you feel are appropriate.

Be alert, get prepared, fight the good fight!

God bless and God save the Republic.

Ukraine – Something Wicked This Way Comes…

So, it seems the threat of a war in the Ukraine has filled the airwaves and the other propaganda outlets. It sure seems like a convenient way to make sure people are not paying attention to the various courtroom dramas, legal setbacks of the ruling junta, and the failing economy. What better way to take the nation’s attention off of the our own collapse than the threat of war?

That is not to say that the threat of war is not serious. It would not be the first time political posturing to take a nation’s mind off of domestic issues spiraled out of control. I have followed the situation in Ukraine for years and every previous time there was a “Russian buildup” it was tied to strengthening the bargaining position of one side or the other. Four decades after the end of the Cold War nothing opens the floodgates on US aid money that the threat of a mass of Russian tanks crossing a border somewhere. That same mass of Russian tanks tends to be very effective at influencing the behaviors of smaller nations facing those tanks.

The same pundits who have always had an valid explanation other than a Russian invasion for the troop movements are now saying that the tanks are very likely to roll this time, probably sometime in in January or February. Some will argue that will not happen. After all, who attacks in winter? The answer to those who only think they know history is…the Russians.

So, there is a very significant probability that the Russians are willing to roll this time. Based on the track record of those who have stolen control of our nation, the Russians are probably pretty confident that the US will fail to defend Ukraine as we are treaty bound to do. It is also probable that the current regime in the US will bumble their way into a war that they are incapable of winning. No matter how this plays out the US will suffer. As will the Ukrainian people.

Now, what happens if the US gets tangled up in the Ukraine?

First and foremost, we will likely face a massive wave of cyber attacks on critical infrastructure and financial systems. The Russian hackers are very good. We will probably see power outages, cellular and Internet outages and issues with electronic banking including EBT, debit, credit, zelle, etc being unavailable.

So, keep the fuel in your vehicles topped off. Have a backup power source and plenty of fuel and a way to stay warm in the cold. Keep some extra cash on hand if you can. Have an alternate means of communication and receiving news. I have sent out an message to my family to be prepared for such things and will be communicating it to my extended team before long.

Iran could decide it was time to actually use some of the newly purchased (with dollars provided by President Obama’s administration) military toys it has. Saudi Arabia, through Yemen, or Israel could face a firestorm.

With the US tied up fighting Russia, North Korea could decide to forcibly unify the peninsula.

Even more likely, China could move forward with bringing Taiwan into the fold by force. I don’t think they would directly invade Taiwan but they could take some of the smaller islands controlled by Taiwan relatively easily and set up a blockade of the nation as  whole. The US would be unable to respond in any meaningful way.

I pray that there are enough adults in the room to prevent a worst case scenario.

Be alert, get prepared, fight the good fight!

God bless and God save the Republic.