Ukraine – Pray, Pray Now, Pray Hard….

I have tried not to be a fear monger on the Ukraine crisis but…

The situation in Ukraine looks to be escalating even closer to war. We have sent 8000 troops and F-15s to Eastern Europe and 8 B-52 bombers (we only announced 4) to Western Europe. Israel is evacuating their embassy staff and has issued a travel warning. Ukraine has given Russia 48 hour deadline to explain troop movements in the Eastern regions already occupied by Russia. Putin pulled his personal yacht (unfinished) out of a German shipyard and he and “Sleepy Joe” have scheduled an emergency phone call for tomorrow. There’s more but those are the high points.

Most analysts expect any action to begin between the 14th and the 20th but it could be anytime. If we can make it through February without WWIII starting it will be a miracle (so, get to praying if you are not already).

The immediate impact on us would be massive increases in gas prices (oil proces are already going up in anticipation of an attack), cyber-attacks could cause banking and\or credit card systems to fail. Logistics and supply chain attacks have already started so we might see even worse problems with availability of critical goods and supplies (like food). The power grid could be knocked out for a while (at least regionally) as well.

If you haven’t already started (why not?) I suggest that you get busy preparing like you would for a a natural disaster; food, water, fuel and cash. If supplies are limited for more than a short time we could see civil unrest and violence.

If you are already prepping it might be a good time to get finalize what you can and top off your preps.

Keep a close eye on world events so nothing takes you unprepared and please pray that the idiots in charge get smart and this does not happen. We may well need a miracle at this point.

Take care and God bless.

Ukraine – A Depressing Bit Of History (Plus)

As I briefly mentioned in my post Ukraine – Something Wicked This Way Comes… Russians, historically, are quite adept and willing to engage in winter operations. Defensively and offensively it has served them well in the past. Joe Dolio over at Tactical Wisdom shared a rather depressing bit of history extending on that thought they also like to leverage holidays and international events to slow and confuse western response to these operations.

For example, the Russians rolled into Afghanistan on Christmas Eve in 1979 because they knew Western operations centers would be lightly staffed for the holiday. National and military leadership would also be out of pocket for the same reason. Moreover they have used international events such as the Olympics (starting soon) to help take advantage of the distractions they provide:

Russia took advantage of the Olympic Opening Ceremony to strike Georgia in 2008 and the Olympic Closing Ceremony in 2014 to take the Crimea.

He has some even more chilling concerns in this post (Learning from Mongol Moon) related to China. I encourage everyone to check it out and prepare as you see fit based on the scenario outlined.

(Plus)

Most assume a Russian offensive would begin with or include a cyberattack on the US and Western powers. So, is the discover of and widespread use of the Log4j vulnerability a coincidence?

I don’t have enough information to say one way or the other but…

Take all information like this with a grain of salt. Then take a look at your preparedness/readiness level and take whatever measures you feel are appropriate.

Be alert, get prepared, fight the good fight!

God bless and God save the Republic.

Ukraine – Something Wicked This Way Comes…

So, it seems the threat of a war in the Ukraine has filled the airwaves and the other propaganda outlets. It sure seems like a convenient way to make sure people are not paying attention to the various courtroom dramas, legal setbacks of the ruling junta, and the failing economy. What better way to take the nation’s attention off of the our own collapse than the threat of war?

That is not to say that the threat of war is not serious. It would not be the first time political posturing to take a nation’s mind off of domestic issues spiraled out of control. I have followed the situation in Ukraine for years and every previous time there was a “Russian buildup” it was tied to strengthening the bargaining position of one side or the other. Four decades after the end of the Cold War nothing opens the floodgates on US aid money that the threat of a mass of Russian tanks crossing a border somewhere. That same mass of Russian tanks tends to be very effective at influencing the behaviors of smaller nations facing those tanks.

The same pundits who have always had an valid explanation other than a Russian invasion for the troop movements are now saying that the tanks are very likely to roll this time, probably sometime in in January or February. Some will argue that will not happen. After all, who attacks in winter? The answer to those who only think they know history is…the Russians.

So, there is a very significant probability that the Russians are willing to roll this time. Based on the track record of those who have stolen control of our nation, the Russians are probably pretty confident that the US will fail to defend Ukraine as we are treaty bound to do. It is also probable that the current regime in the US will bumble their way into a war that they are incapable of winning. No matter how this plays out the US will suffer. As will the Ukrainian people.

Now, what happens if the US gets tangled up in the Ukraine?

First and foremost, we will likely face a massive wave of cyber attacks on critical infrastructure and financial systems. The Russian hackers are very good. We will probably see power outages, cellular and Internet outages and issues with electronic banking including EBT, debit, credit, zelle, etc being unavailable.

So, keep the fuel in your vehicles topped off. Have a backup power source and plenty of fuel and a way to stay warm in the cold. Keep some extra cash on hand if you can. Have an alternate means of communication and receiving news. I have sent out an message to my family to be prepared for such things and will be communicating it to my extended team before long.

Iran could decide it was time to actually use some of the newly purchased (with dollars provided by President Obama’s administration) military toys it has. Saudi Arabia, through Yemen, or Israel could face a firestorm.

With the US tied up fighting Russia, North Korea could decide to forcibly unify the peninsula.

Even more likely, China could move forward with bringing Taiwan into the fold by force. I don’t think they would directly invade Taiwan but they could take some of the smaller islands controlled by Taiwan relatively easily and set up a blockade of the nation as  whole. The US would be unable to respond in any meaningful way.

I pray that there are enough adults in the room to prevent a worst case scenario.

Be alert, get prepared, fight the good fight!

God bless and God save the Republic.