Intel Brief 06/02/2022

Food:

*Iran – Protests continued and several protesters were killed when security forces opened fire on crowds.

(Steps to) War:

*Russia – the US is providing HIMARS missile systems to Ukraine. Russia has warned against doing so several times. Senior Kremlin officials have warned that this could result in escalation to direct war with the US. A Russian parliament member called for destroying cities along both coasts of the US if these systems are used to target Russian cities. The UK has offered to provide even longer range missiles that are compatible with the launchers we provided. This is probably a way for the US and UK to “spread the blame” when /if these weapons are used against Russian cities.

*Russia – Possibly in response to the US transfer of HIMARS missile systems Russia began nuclear drills. Moving nuclear capable missiles capable of reaching the US out of storage facilities and into the field, testing and performing pre-launch activities. No word on if test launches are planned.

*Russia – The US is now trying to provide Gray Eagle drones to Ukraine. These drones can remain airborne for over 40 hours and carry 8 hellfire missiles. This is also likely to escalate tensions and force a Russian response.

*Russia – US Cyber warfare commander freely admitted that US cyber forces have been used to spy on and target Russian forces, disrupt communications and spread disinformation (lies) about troop deployments and activities.

*China – US and Taiwan have announced closer cooperation and ties between the island’s military and the US “National Guard.”

*Korea – Newly elected president of South Korea referred to N/ Korea as “the enemy.” This is the strongest language used between the nations in decades.

Civil Unrest/Violence:

*Chicago – 10 people were killed and 52 wounded in shootings over Memorial Day weekend

*Tulsa – Four people plus the shooter were killed in a medical center. The shooter was a black male and there are reports the shooting was racially motivated so it won’t be seen on national news.

Economy:

*Europe – Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are reporting official inflation rates of between 16.4% and 20.1%. The highest in Europe.

*Russia – creditors have begun the process of declaring Russia in default due to a claimed $1.9 million in accrued interest not being paid.

Intel Brief 05/31/2022

Food:

*US – egg production has been dramatically decreased due to avian flu, inflation and supply chain issues. As of Sunday one of the largest egg producers in the US was hit with a fire that destroyed the facility and tens of thousands or chickens. This is the latest in a string of fires at food production and distribution centers in the US.

*Sugar – Kazakhstan and Pakistan have limited sugar exports. India is expected to follow suit. Brazil, the world’s largest sugar exporter is also expected to limit exports as they convert more sugar to ethanol to combat increased fuel costs.

(Steps to) War:

*Russia – Conducted a hypersonic missile test near the border with Finland.

*Iran – A Revolutionary Guard leader was assassinated outside his home. US sources leaked that Israel was behind the assassination.

*Iran – A drone attack was carried out on an Iranian weapons development facility.

*Iran/Israel – After an attack on Iranian weapons complex suspected to be carried our by Israel and the assassination of a senior military leader conducted by Israel. Israel announced that they would respond against Iran for any attacks on Israel or Israelis by Iranian proxies.

*Colombia – no candidate achieved a majority in the presidential election. A runoff will be held. Venezuela had threatened an invasion if the communist candidate does not win.

*China – a flight of 22 fighters and 8 support aircraft penetrated Taiwanese airspace around the Pratas Islands. Taiwan scrambled fighters and activated missile defense systems but no shots were fired.

Civil Unrest/Violence:

*Catholic Churches – Two more Catholic churches, one in Brooklyn and one is Katy, were robbed in the last few weeks. Both had tabernacles stolen from the altars and in one a statue of Mary was beheaded.

Economy:

*US – The savings rate is down to 4.4%. The lowest it has been since 2008.

*Germany – The inflation rate is 8.9%, the highest in 60 years

*Pakistan – Due to inflation, supply chain issues and a slow economy Pakistan is requesting a $36 billion bailout to prevent defaulting on existing international loans.

Other:

*Drought – severe drought has affected US agriculture and is forcing water conservation in several Western states. Europe is also facing drought and France is implementing water conservation requirements in many areas as well.

*Russian Default – With US exemptions allowing Russia to make payments on international loans to expire, the Russian government has proposed a scheme to allow it to continue paying international debts. In a dual account system, like the one allowing for gas payments, Russia will pay debts into an account at a non-sanctioned Russian bank in Rubles. These will then be converted to dollars and deposited in a second account for payment of the international debts.

Intel Brief 05/28/2022

Food:

*Malaysia – has banned the export of chicken

*India – Second largest sugar exporter has limited exports to contain costs. India has already limited exports of wheat.

*France – Food vouchers and rationing have been rolled out is several parts of the country

*US – The IMF has called on the US to increase food exports to poor nations. Food prices in the US are already skyrocketing and projections for the next harvest are very poor.

(Steps to) War:

*Turkey – US warned Turkish officials not to put US troops at risk during their military incursion (invasion) of Syria to attack Kurdish “terrorists.” Many US troops are fighting alongside and training the Kurdish groups Turkey is targeting.

Pakistan – Massive protests in and around the capital. Ousted PM is claiming the US is behind regime change.

China – Conducted live fire exercises in the waters around Taiwan

Russia – Foreign Minister tells convention of governors that the West has declared “total war” on

*US/Russia/Iran – The US seized a Russian oil tanker off the coast of Greece that was supposedly carrying Iranian oil in violation of sanctions. The oil is being offloaded to a US flagged tanker and will be shipped to US refineries. In retaliation, Iran has seized two Greek tankers in international waters and sailed them to Iran.

*Unknown – A commercial 777 airliner was forced to take evasive action to avoid an intercontinental ballistic missile launched from a submarine. No notices were posted warning of such a test and no nation admits to having tested the missile.

*Russia – The US allowed the exemption to expire allowing Russia access to their frozen accounts to pay government debts. This will force Russia into default on international loans. Russian pre-paid on two loans before the exemption expired. It is unknown how many US banks and investors will be affected or how much money will be lost if the exemption is not reinstated.

Civil Unrest/Violence:

*Gun Control – In the wake of the Uvalde school shooting there are numerous calls for gun control, responses from citizens and politicians stating that guns will be used if legislation is passed and many gun control advocates are calling for violence against NRA members meeting in Houston.

Economy:

*US – Home foreclosures are surging

*US – The US economy shrank by 1.5% in the first quarters of 2022

Dates To Watch:

*May 29 – Presidential elections in Colombia.  Russian backed Venezuelan dictator Chavez has stated that if the candidate he favors loses he will invade. Columbia is the last remaining US ally in South America.

Intel Brief 05/25/2022

Food:

*Food Price Index – The international food price index has hit 160. In 2011 they hit 140 and there were revolutions in a number of countries including Egypt, Libya and Syria. We are already seeing the beginnings of similar civil unrest in Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Peru, Armenia and Pakistan.

*Eggs – US egg production has dropped to a 7 year low due to an avian flu outbreak. Orange production has fallen to the lowest level in almost a century,

(Steps to) War:

*Turkey/Syria – Turkey announced another military incursion (invasion) into Syria.

*US/Israel/Iran – US has publicly agreed to assist Israel in a drill simulating a large scale air attack on Iran.

*Russia – US announces we will be providing long range Harpoon anti-ship missiles to Ukraine

*Russia – Lithuania has called for an international coalition to break the Russian naval blockade of Ukraine. The UK is now backing this plan. This would put Western warships in direct confrontation with Russian warships enforcing the blockade.

*Russia/China – During the meeting of Japan, US (Joe Biden), India and Australia in Tokyo, China and Russia flew combined flights of strategic bombers with fighter escorts into Japanese and S. Korean Air Defense Zones (ADZs). Fighters from S. Korea and Japan were scrambled to intercept and escort the Chinese and Russian planes out of restricted airspace. Russia is still technically at war with Japan and has been since WWII.

*N. Korea – N. Korea launched several missiles during the meetings in Japan. One landed off the coast of S. Korea and two were launched towards Japan. S. Korea responded by scrambling aircraft and launching missiles that landed off the coast of N. Korea. The US also launched a missile in the general direction of N. Korea.

*Hungary – The Hungarian government declared a wartime emergency, effectively declaring martial law, in response to the Russia/Ukraine war.

Civil Unrest/Violence:

*Roe v. Wade Decision – The ruling overturning Roe v. Wade could be released as early as this week. Violent protests are expected to follow. Pro-Abortion groups have promised a “summer of Rage” in response.

Economy:

*Housing – New home sales down 16.6% in April

Other:

*COVID – CDC is recommending mandatory testing before and after domestic air travel. NYC is starting to lock down again.

*Fuel Prices – Biden admits that the increase in fuel prices is painful but needed to force transition to green energy and electric vehicles.

Dates To Watch:

*May 25 – Exemption allowing Russia to access US Dollars to pay international debts expires (unless extended by the Biden administration). American investors will lose hundreds of millions of dollars if this happens. Russia pre-paid on debts due in the next week or two. The US has stated that the exemption will be allowed to expire.

*May 29 – Presidential elections in Colombia.  Russian backed Venezuelan dictator Chavez has stated that if the candidate he favors loses he will invade. Columbia is the last remaining US ally in South America.

Intel Brief 05/23/2022

Food:

*UN Report – Shows the world has approximately 10 weeks wheat remaining in reserves. Due to increased cost and decreased availability countries around the world are depleting their reserves.

(Steps to) War:

*China – Just before Biden’s arrival in S. Korea, 2 Chinese heavy bombers circled Okinawa where significant portions of the US military presence in the far east are stationed. A large fleet exercise was also initiated in the waters between Japan and Taiwan.

*China – China sent 2 heavy bombers and 16 fighters into the Taiwanese air defense zone on Friday as Biden landed in S. Korea. The aircraft crossed the midline of the Taiwanese straits. This about the first time they have ventured that far into the ADZ.

*China – US announced deepening trade relations with Taiwan. In a press conference Joe Biden announced that the US would go to war with China if they moved on Taiwan. The White House later backtracked that statement but China responded with a strong statement warning the US to stay out of it.

Russia – Electrical service and gas has been shut off for several more Western countries.

Civil Unrest/Violence:

*Roe v. Wade Decision – The ruling overturning Roe v. Wade could be released as early as Today (5/23). Violent protests are expected to follow.

Economy:

*Turkey – Government reports show the inflation rate is up again and is now 70%

*US – Inflation and a falling stock market has cost Americans $22 trillion. Minimum estimates are that it will cost us at least another $1.9 trillion this year.

Other:

*Monkey Pox – Belgium has instituted a mandatory quarantine for anyone who may have been exposed. NOTE: There are tons of unconfirmed reports about the origin and nature of this strain of the disease; lab created strain, links to Wuhan labs, etc. NONE of this has been confirmed at this point.

Dates To Watch:

*May 20-24 – Biden travelling to Japan and S. Korea (N. Korea possibly planning a nuclear weapon test to coincide).

*May 25 – Exemption allowing Russia to access US Dollars to pay international debts expires (unless extended by the Biden administration). American investors will lose hundreds of millions of dollars if this happens.

*May 29 – Presidential elections in Colombia.  Russian backed Venezuelan dictator Chavez has stated that if the candidate he favors loses he will invade. Columbia is the last remaining US ally in South America.

Notes On War

Before I send the brief the next Intel Brief I wanted to share something. It is a downer but it is important.

Outside of the troop movements and deployments we are seeing, the number of senior officials talking about war or making statements to prepare the public for war is truly scary. Russian officials are now claiming that Poland has already sent troops into Ukraine to fight Russian forces. US generals are telling military academy graduates that they will probably serve in combat against a “major power” soon. China is kicking westerners out of the country and making very aggressive statements as well. Recordings of the Chinese military preparing for an invasion were leaked (nothing is leaked out of the Chinese military unless it is on purpose).

When Russia invaded Ukraine I said it would escalate to a full blown war with the West in 90-120 days. So far I have been wrong but the rhetoric, posturing and propaganda are still ramping up. The bottom line is that the chances of a war between superpowers is growing more likely every day. Unless we get some grownups in Washington, Beijing, Moscow, and Europe it is not a question of if, but when.

This will not be like the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq or Vietnam where outside of some news reports it doesn’t affect us at home. All three nations have missiles, aircraft and ships that can reach just about any target anywhere in the world. All three have massive nuclear arsenals. At a minimum the cost of food, fuel and other goods will skyrocket and they will be harder to get. Attacks on critical infrastructure could knock out water, power and other utilities (Internet) for days or weeks. At worst we could experience the daily threat of airstrikes like they are dealing with in Ukraine today and Londoners experienced during WWII.

Please, please, please start preparing now. Stock up on water, food, meds, personal items, fuel and ammo. If God blesses us and this storm passes over us we just saved some money on future purchases. If not, then we will be better able to survive and protect those we love.

God bless and please pray that this cup will be taken from us.

Ukraine – A Depressing Bit Of History (Plus)

As I briefly mentioned in my post Ukraine – Something Wicked This Way Comes… Russians, historically, are quite adept and willing to engage in winter operations. Defensively and offensively it has served them well in the past. Joe Dolio over at Tactical Wisdom shared a rather depressing bit of history extending on that thought they also like to leverage holidays and international events to slow and confuse western response to these operations.

For example, the Russians rolled into Afghanistan on Christmas Eve in 1979 because they knew Western operations centers would be lightly staffed for the holiday. National and military leadership would also be out of pocket for the same reason. Moreover they have used international events such as the Olympics (starting soon) to help take advantage of the distractions they provide:

Russia took advantage of the Olympic Opening Ceremony to strike Georgia in 2008 and the Olympic Closing Ceremony in 2014 to take the Crimea.

He has some even more chilling concerns in this post (Learning from Mongol Moon) related to China. I encourage everyone to check it out and prepare as you see fit based on the scenario outlined.

(Plus)

Most assume a Russian offensive would begin with or include a cyberattack on the US and Western powers. So, is the discover of and widespread use of the Log4j vulnerability a coincidence?

I don’t have enough information to say one way or the other but…

Take all information like this with a grain of salt. Then take a look at your preparedness/readiness level and take whatever measures you feel are appropriate.

Be alert, get prepared, fight the good fight!

God bless and God save the Republic.

Ukraine – Something Wicked This Way Comes…

So, it seems the threat of a war in the Ukraine has filled the airwaves and the other propaganda outlets. It sure seems like a convenient way to make sure people are not paying attention to the various courtroom dramas, legal setbacks of the ruling junta, and the failing economy. What better way to take the nation’s attention off of the our own collapse than the threat of war?

That is not to say that the threat of war is not serious. It would not be the first time political posturing to take a nation’s mind off of domestic issues spiraled out of control. I have followed the situation in Ukraine for years and every previous time there was a “Russian buildup” it was tied to strengthening the bargaining position of one side or the other. Four decades after the end of the Cold War nothing opens the floodgates on US aid money that the threat of a mass of Russian tanks crossing a border somewhere. That same mass of Russian tanks tends to be very effective at influencing the behaviors of smaller nations facing those tanks.

The same pundits who have always had an valid explanation other than a Russian invasion for the troop movements are now saying that the tanks are very likely to roll this time, probably sometime in in January or February. Some will argue that will not happen. After all, who attacks in winter? The answer to those who only think they know history is…the Russians.

So, there is a very significant probability that the Russians are willing to roll this time. Based on the track record of those who have stolen control of our nation, the Russians are probably pretty confident that the US will fail to defend Ukraine as we are treaty bound to do. It is also probable that the current regime in the US will bumble their way into a war that they are incapable of winning. No matter how this plays out the US will suffer. As will the Ukrainian people.

Now, what happens if the US gets tangled up in the Ukraine?

First and foremost, we will likely face a massive wave of cyber attacks on critical infrastructure and financial systems. The Russian hackers are very good. We will probably see power outages, cellular and Internet outages and issues with electronic banking including EBT, debit, credit, zelle, etc being unavailable.

So, keep the fuel in your vehicles topped off. Have a backup power source and plenty of fuel and a way to stay warm in the cold. Keep some extra cash on hand if you can. Have an alternate means of communication and receiving news. I have sent out an message to my family to be prepared for such things and will be communicating it to my extended team before long.

Iran could decide it was time to actually use some of the newly purchased (with dollars provided by President Obama’s administration) military toys it has. Saudi Arabia, through Yemen, or Israel could face a firestorm.

With the US tied up fighting Russia, North Korea could decide to forcibly unify the peninsula.

Even more likely, China could move forward with bringing Taiwan into the fold by force. I don’t think they would directly invade Taiwan but they could take some of the smaller islands controlled by Taiwan relatively easily and set up a blockade of the nation as  whole. The US would be unable to respond in any meaningful way.

I pray that there are enough adults in the room to prevent a worst case scenario.

Be alert, get prepared, fight the good fight!

God bless and God save the Republic.

The Saber’s Are A Rattlin’

Last week we were informed that China had once again violated Taiwanese airspace, this time with a flight of 20 military aircraft (link). Today, we hear that the US military in Europe is going on alert for a “potential imminent crisis” as the fighting intensifies in Ukraine while Russia deploys thousands of troops to the area (link). Both nations are “rattlin’ their sabers” ever more loudly.

Meanwhile, here in the US, the New Regime is busy driving Trump supporters, patriots and anyone else who doesn’t swallow the load of woke liberalism out of the military. The new and improved US military is ready willing and able to wage war on environmental change and lead a charge of high-horse mounted, social justice warriors against domestic threats like television reporters who disagree with our AmSoc overloads. Unfortunately, they are increasingly ill prepared to fight and actual, you know, war.

Are the Russians, Chinese or even the Iranians worried that “ole puddin’ head” drooling his way through the White House could string enough coherent sentences together to issue clear and decisive orders to the military? I doubt it. But, they are playing it safe and slowly increasing the temperature on the pot of frogs, just to make sure.

So, while the US uses its military as a platform for combating the weather and social injustice, while we steadfastly try and ignore the Marxist insurgency in the Pacific Northwest and the invasion of our southern border storm clouds gather across Europe and Asia. I hope and pray those who danced at the removal of President Trump from power are ready, willing and able to defend themselves. If they are not, I hope they are at least brushing up on their Russian and Mandarin.

Stay alert, stay prepared and stay safe.

God bless.