Intel Brief 05/25/2022


*Food Price Index – The international food price index has hit 160. In 2011 they hit 140 and there were revolutions in a number of countries including Egypt, Libya and Syria. We are already seeing the beginnings of similar civil unrest in Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Peru, Armenia and Pakistan.

*Eggs – US egg production has dropped to a 7 year low due to an avian flu outbreak. Orange production has fallen to the lowest level in almost a century,

(Steps to) War:

*Turkey/Syria – Turkey announced another military incursion (invasion) into Syria.

*US/Israel/Iran – US has publicly agreed to assist Israel in a drill simulating a large scale air attack on Iran.

*Russia – US announces we will be providing long range Harpoon anti-ship missiles to Ukraine

*Russia – Lithuania has called for an international coalition to break the Russian naval blockade of Ukraine. The UK is now backing this plan. This would put Western warships in direct confrontation with Russian warships enforcing the blockade.

*Russia/China – During the meeting of Japan, US (Joe Biden), India and Australia in Tokyo, China and Russia flew combined flights of strategic bombers with fighter escorts into Japanese and S. Korean Air Defense Zones (ADZs). Fighters from S. Korea and Japan were scrambled to intercept and escort the Chinese and Russian planes out of restricted airspace. Russia is still technically at war with Japan and has been since WWII.

*N. Korea – N. Korea launched several missiles during the meetings in Japan. One landed off the coast of S. Korea and two were launched towards Japan. S. Korea responded by scrambling aircraft and launching missiles that landed off the coast of N. Korea. The US also launched a missile in the general direction of N. Korea.

*Hungary – The Hungarian government declared a wartime emergency, effectively declaring martial law, in response to the Russia/Ukraine war.

Civil Unrest/Violence:

*Roe v. Wade Decision – The ruling overturning Roe v. Wade could be released as early as this week. Violent protests are expected to follow. Pro-Abortion groups have promised a “summer of Rage” in response.


*Housing – New home sales down 16.6% in April


*COVID – CDC is recommending mandatory testing before and after domestic air travel. NYC is starting to lock down again.

*Fuel Prices – Biden admits that the increase in fuel prices is painful but needed to force transition to green energy and electric vehicles.

Dates To Watch:

*May 25 – Exemption allowing Russia to access US Dollars to pay international debts expires (unless extended by the Biden administration). American investors will lose hundreds of millions of dollars if this happens. Russia pre-paid on debts due in the next week or two. The US has stated that the exemption will be allowed to expire.

*May 29 – Presidential elections in Colombia.  Russian backed Venezuelan dictator Chavez has stated that if the candidate he favors loses he will invade. Columbia is the last remaining US ally in South America.

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